A decade after the UK entered into a hasty public vote that polarised the nation and triggered chaos, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the political, economic and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is looming, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unity has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in academia but very few elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the basics. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators supports unity or the status quo. Each authors two essays that strive for objectivity in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the case against, assembling economic and social data, past examples and structural examples.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, duties, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Debate indicates an recognition of the notion that there may exist valid points on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they prefer unification but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his generation is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "One side will prevail in this matter and the other side will in the end lose but both parties has possesses important lessons to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster must join the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
