Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the crisis triggered by the presentation of a new comprehensive peace framework for achieving ceasefire appeared – temporarily – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "significant advancement" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: a renewed assault of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Peace Talks and Military Action
The chain of opposing developments captured the harsh reality of the recent timeframe. By day, negotiation efforts are conducted: positive announcements are delivered from multiple capitals. Considerable effort is allocated on managing certain initiatives. By night, Russian leadership forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, military action persists as the key method for achieving "peace".
After-Dark Attacks
As the offensive unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is equipped to monitor rocket firings from enemy soil, a ability provided through up-to-date information. From witness perspectives, military aircraft that had been dispatched to counter approaching cruise missiles roared overhead – modern combat jets delivered to Ukraine by Western partners.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons engaged: several firings fired to intercept a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably provided by partner states. Every deployment jolts you unexpectedly, causing tremors. The moment of terror quickly becomes grim resignation: possibly the hostile projectile won't strike its target this time, protecting urban areas from devastation and additional electricity failures.
Ongoing Risks
Not long after, a large-caliber weapon fired at a drone somewhere nearby, part of a defensive team – most likely imported technology. Unfortunately, the projectiles didn't strike the opposing UAV – it continued its flight toward its target.
Intermittently, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv greeted the daybreak reports: multiple fatalities, damage and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the evening attack. As always, everyone still went about their day – experiencing conflict. But those full day encapsulated Ukraine's vital need on external assistance – a need that regional partners are evidently unprepared to replace in the immediate future.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The 28-point plan from US administration generated strong feelings, discussion and deep concern – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and multilateral gatherings.
Every new proposal from US leadership follows the consistent cycle: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, effectively counters. They contain the crisis but never actually win the battle. This trend will, no doubt, endure.
Tactical Assessments
It is easy to blame certain parties of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the whole story. American leadership operates on a assumption understood by seasoned negotiators: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have been unable to protect through force. The White House presumes that it is unfeasible to compel Moscow to relinquish the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's south or east.
The challenge is that while recognising this factual reality, US leadership does minimal to deter Moscow, through words or deeds, from assuming that the current condition will not shift further in its favour in the coming year.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Russian leadership is convinced that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its supporters are nearing depletion. Their motivation to accept conditions that does not give them the maximum possible gain is almost completely absent. There may be multiple initiatives to achieve ceasefire, but they will continue as long as Russia's leadership remains completely certain in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still persist, gradually sacrificing people and territory but averting a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its favour.
Present Conditions
Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a truce. Now, subjective factors are entering the equation: personal goals to mediate resolution and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the national cause against any proposal Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their focus does not shift toward domestic problems. And although their mission will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains quite doubtful that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These opposing factors are guiding negotiations.
Summary and Prospects
It took a only one week to kill the suggested clauses of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by American leadership, opposition by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with pacifying measures of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all achieved their purpose.
While new initiatives based on old ideas are approaching, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off negotiation assaults from Washington that are based on Russian demands and reflect certain reluctance to alter the situation, if they remain united and strengthen their defence capabilities at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to defend against evening bombardments will, for the predictable period, mainly require continued Western support.
